Using machine learning to predict risk of incident opioid use disorder among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries: A prognostic study.

Icon for Public Library of Science Icon for PubMed Central Related Articles

Using machine learning to predict risk of incident opioid use disorder among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries: A prognostic study.

PLoS One. 2020;15(7):e0235981

Authors: Lo-Ciganic WH, Huang JL, Zhang HH, Weiss JC, Kwoh CK, Donohue JM, Gordon AJ, Cochran G, Malone DC, Kuza CC, Gellad WF

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a machine-learning algorithm to improve prediction of incident OUD diagnosis among Medicare beneficiaries with ≥1 opioid prescriptions.
METHODS: This prognostic study included 361,527 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, without cancer, filling ≥1 opioid prescriptions from 2011-2016. We randomly divided beneficiaries into training, testing, and validation samples. We measured 269 potential predictors including socio-demographics, health status, patterns of opioid use, and provider-level and regional-level factors in 3-month periods, starting from three months before initiating opioids until development of OUD, loss of follow-up or end of 2016. The primary outcome was a recorded OUD diagnosis or initiating methadone or buprenorphine for OUD as proxy of incident OUD. We applied elastic net, random forests, gradient boosting machine, and deep neural network to predict OUD in the subsequent three months. We assessed prediction performance using C-statistics and other metrics (e.g., number needed to evaluate to identify an individual with OUD [NNE]). Beneficiaries were stratified into subgroups by risk-score decile.
RESULTS: The training (n = 120,474), testing (n = 120,556), and validation (n = 120,497) samples had similar characteristics (age ≥65 years = 81.1%; female = 61.3%; white = 83.5%; with disability eligibility = 25.5%; 1.5% had incident OUD). In the validation sample, the four approaches had similar prediction performances (C-statistic ranged from 0.874 to 0.882); elastic net required the fewest predictors (n = 48). Using the elastic net algorithm, individuals in the top decile of risk (15.8% [n = 19,047] of validation cohort) had a positive predictive value of 0.96%, negative predictive value of 99.7%, and NNE of 104. Nearly 70% of individuals with incident OUD were in the top two deciles (n = 37,078), having highest incident OUD (36 to 301 per 10,000 beneficiaries). Individuals in the bottom eight deciles (n = 83,419) had minimal incident OUD (3 to 28 per 10,000).
CONCLUSIONS: Machine-learning algorithms improve risk prediction and risk stratification of incident OUD in Medicare beneficiaries.

PMID: 32678860 [PubMed – indexed for MEDLINE]

Source link

Related posts

Robots may need lizard-like tails for 'off-road' travel


China's impressive approach to digitizing healthcare


Global Gene Expression Response in Mouse Models of DNA Repair Deficiency after Gamma Irradiation.


This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More

Privacy & Cookies Policy


COVID-19 (Coronavirus) is a new illness that is having a major effect on all businesses globally LIVE COVID-19 STATISTICS FOR World