Artificial intelligence is rapidly transitioning from the realm of science fiction to the reality of our daily lives. Our devices understand what we say, speak to us, and translate between languages with ever-increasing fluency. AI-powered visual recognition algorithms are outperforming people and beginning to find applications in everything from self-driving cars to systems that diagnose cancer in medical images.
Major media organizations increasingly rely on automated journalism to turn raw data into coherent news stories that are virtually indistinguishable from those written by human journalists.
In this article we will reveal the approximate year by when the human level AI will be achieved.
This post is taken from the book, Architects of Intelligence, by Packt Publishing and is written by the bestselling author Martin Ford. In this book, Martin Ford, the Futurist of AI, talks to a hall-of-fame list of the world's top AI experts, delving into the future of AI, its impact on society and the issues we should be genuinely concerned about as the field advances.
As part of the conversations recorded in this book, Martin asked each participant to give his or her best guess for a date when there would be at least a 50 percent probability that artificial general intelligence (or human-level AI) will have been achieved. The results of this very informal survey are shown below.
A number of the individuals Martin spoke with were reluctant to attempt a guess at a specific year.Many pointed out that the path to AGI is highly uncertain and that there are an unknown number of hurdles that will need to be surmounted. Despite best persuasive efforts, five people declined to give a guess. Most of the remaining 18 preferred that their individual guess remains anonymous.
As noted in the introduction, the guesses are neatly bracketed by two people willing to provide dates on the record: Ray Kurzweil at 2029 and Rodney Brooks at 2200.
Here are the 18 guesses:
2029 11 years from 2018
2036 18 years
2038 20 years
2040 22 years
2068 (3) 50 years
2080 62 years
2088 70 years
2098 (2) 80 years
2118 (3) 100 years
2168 (2) 150 years
2188 170 years
2200 182 years
Mean: 2099, 81 years from 2018
Nearly everyone Martin spoke to had quite a lot to say about the path to AGI, and many people—including those who declined to give specific guesses—also gave intervals for when it might be achieved, so the individual interviews offer a lot more insight into this fascinating topic.
It is worth noting that the average date of 2099 is quite pessimistic compared with other surveys that have been done. The AI Impacts website (https://aiimpacts.org/ai-timeline-surveys/) shows results for several other surveys.
Most other surveys have generated results that cluster in the 2040 to 2050 range for human-level AI with a 50 percent probability. It’s important to note that most of these surveys included many more participants and may, in some cases, have included people outside the field of AI research.
For what it’s worth, the much smaller, but also very elite, group of people I spoke with does include several optimists, but taken as a whole, they see AGI as something that remains at least 50 years away, and perhaps 100 or more. If you want to see a true thinking machine, eat your vegetables.
To summarize, this article reveals the approximate year given by AI experts when the human level AI will be achieved. This book, Architects of Intelligence, by Packt Publishing and written by Martin Ford will showcase the state of modern AI and how AI will evolve and the breakthroughs we can expect in the coming years.